Oscar Predictions by Sam

Well, it’s that time of year, and naturally, Oscar predictions are flying about all over the net. Some people have decided to go with the flow, and are picking the most obvious choices, whilst others are going a bit more left of field, and picking some surprise winners.

It’s Sam of FilmStank here, a Film/Television Student studying in Australia, and here are my predictions for what are regarded as the top eight awards:

Best Picture: Avatar
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges – A Crazy Heart
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Waltz – Inglorious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow
Best Writing, Directly for the Screen: Quentin Tarantino – Inglorious Basterds
Best Writing, Based on Previous Material: Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell – District 9

Firstly with the big one,

Best Motion Picture:

I think there are only three real contenders in this category, Avatar, Inglorious Basterds and The Hurt Locker. The winner is not so easy to pick. Avatar is everyones favourite pick, and understandably too. Over the years, Members of the Academy usually love the epics, they love a happy ending, and if some great drama is tied in, it’s usually the pick for Best Picture. Avatar has all three of these elements, as well as the great visual imagery it provides, the massive budget, and simplistic story line. Although, there is a chance that The Hurt Locker may pull a Slumdog Millionaire. It is the under-dog favourite to win, it has the low budget, similar to that of Slumdog, so it could also be the winner. And Inglorious Basterds, well, what can I say, it is a great piece of filmmaking and it has that unique element of script writing that Members of the Academy either love or hate.
But I think I would have to say my vote goes with Avatar. That’s not to say it was my favourite film of all the contenders, but I think it is the best fit for what Members of the Academy are voting for.

Best Actor:

Performance-wise; everyone in this category has a fair chance. But, as everyone knows, there’s more to it than that. George Clooney and Morgan Freeman have both previously picked up there Oscars for Best Supporting actor, and it’s Jeremy Renner’s and Colin Firth’s first nomination, so naturally I’m looking at Jeff Bridges for the win. What’s been praised as a stellar performance from the veteran actor, is also his fifth nomination without ever previously bagging a win. Members of the Academy usually look favourably towards these sort of nominees. Additionally, Bridges has won every other award so far, with the BAFTAs and The Spirit Awards still in waiting. If Bridges takes home the Spirit Award, I think we could be looking at another Mickey Rourke moment. Last year Rourke, like Bridges, took home almost every award preceding the Oscars, including, what most people call the runner-up Oscar award, The Spirit Award. He then lost out to Sean Penn at the Oscars. If Bridges does take the Spirit Award, my vote it either with Jeremy Renner or Colin Firth.

Best Actress:

This year there has been no clear-cut winner from the ladies in leading roles. Sure, there has been some great performances, there’s just no one that you instantly say, “yeah, she’ll win it hands down.” In saying that, I think the Lead Actress Oscar will be going to either Meryl Streep or Sandra Bullock. Now Meryl Streep has had 16 nominations with 2 wins, so Members of the Academy may think, at least for now, she has had enough recognition, as it appears she is not slowing down on the nominations. This leaves Sandra Bullock. Some say her performance in The Blind Side is the best of her career and this is not only her first nomination, but I think it could be her first win.

Best Supporting Actor:

I think this category is the easiest of them all. Christopher Waltz’s performance in Inglorious Basterds was his first appearance in an English film, and wasn’t it a brilliant one at that. He stole every scene he was in, making you laugh, angry, sad, happy and everything else. I say he is the most deserving of this award, and he has won every other award. The only real contender is Christopher Plummer who has a lifetime of a career behind him and this is his first nomination, and it could be potentially his last. Members of the Academy can look favourably to older actors, but looking at Peter O’Toole who has been nominated 8 times without a single win, I think Christopher Waltz can feel pretty confident he’ll be holding the Oscar in a months time.

Best Supporting Actress:

I don’t have much to say on this award, The buzz has been circulating of Mo’Nique’s excellent performance, and so my vote is that she will take home her first Oscar this coming March.

Best Director:

This one, again, is going to be a tight competition between James Cameron, Kathryn Bigelow and Quentin Tarantino. For some strange reason, I have a feeling the Award is not going to match up with the Best Picture winner, which eliminates Cameron and leaves me with Bigelow and Tarantino. I think Tarantino will take home the Screenplay award, and I felt the Academy wants to finally award a female with the Best Director award, which she does deserve. So my vote is with Bigelow.

Best Writing, Directly for the Screen:

As I stated previously, my vote is that Tarantino will take this award home. I think the only real contender is The Hurt Locker and even possibly Up, but I think the Academy likes Tarantino and his writing, so I’m going to say Tarantino.

Best Writing, Based on Previous Material:

This one is another tough one to decide a winner. I would put it between Up in the Air and District 9, and even perhaps Precious, but for some odd reason I think the Academy may look favourably to the underdogs Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell for their writing on District 9.

So there you have it. Who knows, I could be way off, but I guess we will just have to wait til March 7th to find out.

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One Comment on “Oscar Predictions by Sam”

  1. Nat Says:

    Sam, what a summation. I feel so knowledgable now =)
    One small typo though, can you spot it. (typical English teacher aren’t I?!)

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